The semi-final match of the Spanish Super Cup between Real Madrid and Mallorca will take place on January 9 at the King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Real Madrid vs. Mallorca: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: Ricardo de Burgos Bengoetxea (Spain)
Matches – 11 (La Liga and Copa del Rey, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 29;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.6;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 27%.
Predicted lineups for Real Madrid vs. Mallorca
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois – Lucas Vazquez, Eduardo Camavinga, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Antonio Rüdiger – Federico Valverde, Dani Ceballos – Brahim Diaz, Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo Goes – Kylian Mbappé.
Mallorca (4-4-2): Dominik Greif – Pablo Maffeo, Jose Manuel Copete, Joan Mojica, Martin Valjent – Omar Mascarell, Sergi Darder, Manu Morlanes, Antonio Sanchez – Vedat Muriqi, Cyle Larin.
Real Madrid
The capital club is participating in the Super Cup as the winner of La Liga 2024/25. Madrid has won this tournament 13 times, with only Barcelona having more victories (14). Carlo Ancelotti's side faced the Catalans in the Super Cup final in the last two editions. Last year, Real emerged victorious with a 4-1 win, while in the 2022/23 season, the trophy went to the Catalans, who defeated Madrid 3-1 in the final.
- Both teams scored in regular time in 5 of Real Madrid's last 7 Spanish Super Cup matches.
- The club has not won in regulation time in 6 of their last 8 matches in this tournament (4 draws and 2 losses).
- At least one goal was scored in the first 45 minutes in Real Madrid's last seven Super Cup matches.
Mallorca
The team is participating in this tournament for only the third time, this time as the finalist of the Copa del Rey. The islanders reached the final of the Copa del Rey last year, where they lost to Athletic in a penalty shootout (1-1, extra time 0-0, penalties 2-4). Mallorca's club museum houses one Super Cup trophy, won in 1998. The team also reached the final of this tournament in 2003.
- No more than three goals were scored in 18 of the club's last 20 matches in La Liga.
- The number "1" appeared in the final score in 13 of Mallorca's last 16 league games.
- The first half ended in a draw in 9 of the islanders' last 10 La Liga matches.
Real Madrid vs. Mallorca: Match Prediction
Madrid, anticipating a final clash with Barcelona, may approach the match against the islanders with a laid-back attitude. This is something Jagoba Arrasate's side should capitalize on. Additionally, Mallorca has been playing well this season and is deservedly in a high 6th place in the La Liga standings. Beating this team is not easy. Notably, in their last 34 league matches, the club has only suffered two defeats with a margin of two or more goals.
Interestingly, Real does not aim to defeat their opponents with a commanding scoreline in this tournament. In their last 17 Spanish Super Cup matches, the club has only won by more than one goal in regular time four times. Moreover, in their last four head-to-head encounters in La Liga, the islanders have never lost to Madrid by more than one goal – 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses with a score of 0-1. Therefore, I expect a hard-fought match with minimal scoring, in which Mallorca even has a chance to avoid defeat in 90 minutes.
My prediction – Mallorca with a handicap (+1.5)
