The semi-final match of the Spanish Super Cup between Real Madrid and Mallorca will take place on January 9 at the King Abdullah Sports City Stadium in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Real Madrid vs. Mallorca: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: Ricardo de Burgos Bengoetxea (Spain)
Matches – 11 (La Liga and Copa del Rey, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 29;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.6;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 27%.
Predicted lineups for Real Madrid vs. Mallorca
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois – Lucas Vazquez, Eduardo Camavinga, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Antonio Rüdiger – Federico Valverde, Dani Ceballos – Brahim Diaz, Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo Goes – Kylian Mbappe.
Mallorca (4-4-2): Dominik Greif – Pablo Maffeo, Jose Manuel Copete, Johan Mojica, Martin Valjent – Omar Mascarell, Sergi Darder, Manu Morlanes, Antonio Sanchez – Vedat Muriqi, Cyle Larin.
Real Madrid
The capital club is participating in the Super Cup as the winner of La Liga 2024/25. Madrid has won this tournament 13 times, with only Barcelona having more victories (14). Carlo Ancelotti's team has faced the Catalans in the Super Cup final in the past two editions. Last year, Real was victorious with a 4-1 win, while in the 2022/23 season, the trophy went to the Catalans, who defeated Madrid in the final (3-1).
Midfielder Luka Modric will not play due to a viral infection.
- Both teams scored in regular time in 5 of Real's last 7 Spanish Super Cup games.
- The club has not won in 90 minutes in 6 of their last 8 matches in this tournament (4 draws and 2 losses).
- At least one goal was scored in the first 45 minutes in seven of Madrid's previous Super Cup encounters.
Mallorca
The team is participating in this tournament for only the third time, this time as the Copa del Rey finalist. The islanders reached the final of the King's Cup last year, where they lost to Athletic in a penalty shootout (1-1, extra time 0-0, penalties 2-4). Mallorca's club museum houses one Super Cup trophy, which they won in 1998. The team also played in the final of this tournament in 2003.
- No more than three goals were scored in 18 of the club's last 20 La Liga matches.
- The number "1" appeared in the final score in 13 of Mallorca's last 16 league games.
- The first half ended in a draw in 9 of the islanders' last 10 La Liga encounters.
Real Madrid vs. Mallorca: Match Prediction
Madrid, anticipating a final meeting with Barcelona, may approach the clash with the islanders with less intensity. This is an opportunity for Jagoba Arrasate's side to capitalize on. Moreover, Mallorca is showing good football this season and has rightfully secured a high 6th place in the La Liga standings. Defeating this team is not easy. Notably, in their last 34 league matches, the club suffered only two defeats with a margin of two or more goals.
Interestingly, Real does not aim to defeat their opponents with a commanding scoreline in this tournament. In the last 17 Spanish Super Cup matches, the club has won by more than one goal in regular time only 4 times. Additionally, in the last four La Liga meetings between the teams, the islanders never lost to Madrid by a margin of two or more goals – 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses with a score of 0-1. Therefore, I expect a competitive match with minimal scoring, where Mallorca might even avoid defeat in 90 minutes.
My prediction – Mallorca with a handicap (+1.5)
