The second leg of the 2024 Copa Libertadores semi-final between River Plate (Argentina) and Atlético Mineiro (Brazil) will take place on October 30 at the Monumental Stadium in Buenos Aires. The score from the first leg is 3-0 in favor of Atlético Mineiro. River Plate - Atlético Mineiro: prediction and bet, odds, statistics.
Referee: Wilmar Roldan (Colombia)
Matches – 12 (International matches, 2024);
Yellow/red cards shown – 78;
Average yellow/red cards per match – 6.5;
Red cards shown – 6;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 17%.
Probable line-ups for the match River Plate – Atlético Mineiro
River Plate (5-3-2): Franco Armani – Paulo Diaz, Enzo Diaz, German Pezzella, Fabricio Bustos, Leandro Gonzalez Pirez – Santiago Simon, Nicolas Fonseca, Nacho Fernandez – Miguel Borja, Facundo Colidio.
Atlético Mineiro (3-4-3): Everson – Lyanco Vojnovic, Rodrigo Battaglia, Junior Alonso – Gustavo Scarpa, Alan Franco Palma, Fausto Vera, Guilherme Arana – Hulk, Paulinho, Deyverson.
For each team, the starting lineup from their last match in this tournament is indicated.
River Plate
The first encounter between these opponents ended in a heavy 0-3 defeat for the Argentinians. Now, to advance to the tournament final, Marcelo Gallardo's charges need to defeat their opponent by a four-goal margin. It is worth noting that the last time River Plate won a Copa Libertadores match by a landslide was in May 2022. Prior to the loss against the Brazilians, the club had a 10-match unbeaten streak in this tournament (8 wins and 2 draws). Additionally, the team has not conceded at least three goals in 15 Copa Libertadores matches.
- Exactly two or three goals were scored in regular time in 13 of River Plate's last 16 games in this tournament.
- The club has opened the scoring in 10 of the previous 11 Copa Libertadores games.
- The team has not lost in the second 45 minutes in their last 13 home matches in the Copa Libertadores (9 wins and 4 draws), conceding only two goals in the second half during this series.
Atlético Mineiro
The Brazilians could play in the Copa Libertadores final for the second time in history, 11 years after their first. In the first leg, the club achieved a significant advantage (3-0), and now even a two-goal defeat would suffice to advance. If the Argentinians win by three goals, a penalty shootout will be held. It should be noted that Gabriel Milito's men have won all six home matches of the 2024 Copa Libertadores, but they have a three-match winless streak away (1 draw and 2 losses).
- At least one team failed to score in 7 of Atlético Mineiro's last 8 Copa Libertadores games.
- No more than two goals were scored in 6 of Atlético Mineiro's last 8 matches in this tournament.
- There was a draw in the first 45 minutes in 6 of the last 8 away Copa Libertadores matches for the Brazilians.
- The team did not score in the first half in 10 of the last 11 away games in this tournament.
River Plate – Atlético Mineiro: match prediction
It seems we are in for a Brazilian final (in the other semi-final match, Botafogo won with a score of 5-0). The club from Mineiro is unlikely to let a three-goal advantage slip away, while at the same time, the Argentinians are probably not resigned to a final defeat. Not to mention the support of the fans, who will push their team forward from the very first minutes of the return match. I assume that Atlético Mineiro will advance to the final, but will lose in Argentina.
River Plate is far more experienced, having reached the final seven times in their history (the last time being five years ago), and the loss in the first meeting can be chalked up to misfortune that befell the team. The Argentinians look strong on their home turf, where they have won an impressive 12 out of 13 matches in this tournament (with one draw against fellow countrymen from Velez Sarsfield). It's also worth noting that in this series of matches, the club has scored at least two goals 11 times. Meanwhile, the Brazilians have been modest on the road – only three victories after 90 minutes in their last 13 Copa Libertadores games (7 draws and 3 losses).
My prediction is a River Plate win with odds of
