The second leg of the Europa League 2024/25 playoff between Roma (Italy) and Porto (Portugal) will take place on February 20 at the Stadio Olimpico. The first match ended in a 1-1 draw. Roma vs. Porto: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Roma
Claudio Ranieri’s side drew 1-1 with Porto in the first leg. As a result, Roma has managed not to lose in 6 of their last 7 Europa League matches (3 wins, 3 draws). To advance to the next round, the Italians need a win. Notably, they have performed well at home in the group stage: 3 wins, 1 draw, and just one goal conceded. Additionally, the club has reached at least the Europa League semi-finals three times in the last five seasons.
- The team has not lost in regular time in 15 of their last 16 home Europa League matches (13 wins, 2 draws).
- At least one opponent has failed to score in 9 of the club's last 12 home games in this European competition.
- No more than two goals have been scored in regular time in 4 of Roma's last 5 Europa League home matches.
Predicted lineup for Roma (4-4-2)
Mile Svilar – Gianluca Mancini, Evan Ndicka, Mehmet Zeki Celik, Angeliño – Lorenzo Pellegrini, Manu Koné, Bryan Cristante, Alexis Saelemaekers – Artem Dovbyk, Paulo Dybala.
Defender Devyne Rensch will miss the game due to injury. Midfielder Bryan Cristante and forward Alexis Saelemaekers are suspended.
Porto
Martin Anselmi's team has avoided defeat in four of their last five Europa League matches (2 wins, 2 draws). However, Porto has not scored more than one goal in three consecutive games in this competition. To advance to the next round, they need a win, and in the event of a draw, extra time will be played. Notably, in the last 11 seasons, the Portuguese side has reached the Europa League round of 16 only once.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Porto's last 8 away matches in this European competition.
- The Portuguese side has scored exactly one or two goals in regular time in their last eight away Europa League matches.
Predicted lineup for Porto (4-3-3)
Diogo Costa – Francisco Moura, Otávio, João Mário Lopes, Tiago Djaló – Rodrigo Mora, Stephen Eustáquio, Alan Varela – Otávio, Gonçalo Borges, Fábio Vieira.
Defender Martim Fernandes and midfielder Marko Grujić will miss the game due to injuries.
Referee
François Letexier (France)
Matches – 8 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 45;
Average yellow cards per match – 5.6;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 50%.
Roma vs. Porto: Match Prediction
Roma is likely to capitalize on their home advantage to tilt the balance in their favor. Their home statistics are impressive: in their last 16 Europa League home matches, they have failed to win in regular time only three times. The club prefers an attacking style and scores frequently: in 11 of these matches, they have breached the opponent's defense at least twice. Additionally, Roma previously faced another Portuguese club, Braga, in the group stage, scoring three unanswered goals.
The Portuguese team, even away from home, plays an attacking game and creates many opportunities. This style helps them score regularly, but they also make many defensive errors. In their last 17 away Europa League matches, Porto has kept a clean sheet only once, and during this period, they have conceded at least two goals 14 times.
I expect a high-scoring game from the hosts and anticipate at least two goals from them. My prediction: Roma Individual Total Over 1.5
