The second leg of the 2025 Copa Libertadores Round of 16 between São Paulo (Brazil) and Atlético Nacional (Colombia) will take place on August 13 at the Morumbi Stadium. The first match ended in a 0-0 draw. São Paulo vs. Atlético Nacional: prediction, betting odds, statistics.
São Paulo
Hernán Crespo's team had a tough first match in Colombia, being outplayed in nearly all aspects of the game, but not on the scoreboard – ending in a draw (0-0). Now the team needs to win at home in regular time to advance to the quarter-finals. Interestingly, the Brazilians have not lost in 90 minutes in the Copa Libertadores for 16 matches, securing 9 wins and 7 draws. Furthermore, the club has kept a clean sheet in 9 of their last 13 matches in this tournament.
- No more than two goals were scored in regular time in 11 of São Paulo's last 13 Copa Libertadores matches.
- The team is on an 11-match unbeaten run in regular time at home in this tournament (5 wins and 6 draws).
- The Brazilians have scored in regular time in their last 6 home matches in the Copa Libertadores.
Predicted lineup for São Paulo (3-5-2)
Enrique Rafael – Nahuel Ferraresi, Sabino, Alan Javier Franco – Damian Bobadilla, Alisson Castro, Cedric Soares, Marcos Antonio, Enzo Hernan Diaz – Andre Oliveira Silva, Luciano.
Midfielders Oscar and Luis Gustavo, defenders Robert Arboleda and Wendell, as well as forwards Ryan Francisco and Jonathan Calleri, are unavailable due to injuries.
Atlético Nacional
Javier Gandolfi's team settled for a goalless draw in the first leg. Despite taking 20 shots on goal and having an xG of 2.5 to 0.23, they failed to capitalize on their chances. Now the Colombians face a tough challenge – to win in regular time on their opponent's turf. If the result is a draw again, a penalty shootout will be held.
- There was no draw in regular time in 13 of Atlético Nacional's last 14 Copa Libertadores matches (5 wins and 8 losses).
- At least one team failed to score in regular time in 9 of the Colombians' last 10 matches in this tournament.
- The club is on a 6-match losing streak in regular time away in the Copa Libertadores.
Predicted lineup for Atlético Nacional (4-2-3-1)
David Ospina – Andres Roman, Camilo Candido, Juan Jose Arias, William Tesillo – Jorman Campuzano, Juan Zapata Sumake – Marino Inestrosa, Edwin Cardona, Marlos Moreno – Alfredo Morelos.
Forwards Facundo Batista, Juan Rosa, and Dayron Asprilla are sidelined due to injuries.
Referee
Maximiliano Ramirez (Argentina)
Matches – 9 (International matches, 2024–2025);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 39;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.3;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 11%.
Match Prediction: São Paulo vs. Atlético Nacional
The Colombians had a great chance to defeat their opponents at home, showing more attacking prowess and dominance. However, out of 20 shots, Atlético Nacional only managed one on target. With such low efficiency, Javier Gandolfi's team will find it incredibly difficult in Brazil. Additionally, the club has performed poorly away in the Copa Libertadores, losing their last 6 matches and failing to score.
The Brazilians achieved their goal – a draw without conceding. I am confident that with their experience, they will overcome their opponents at home, needing just 1 or 2 successful shots on target. São Paulo often wins in this tournament by focusing on not conceding. Notably, the last time the Brazilians lost at home in the Copa Libertadores was over 4 years ago.
My prediction – São Paulo Win
