Spain vs France: prediction & betting odds June 5, 2025

The 2024/25 Nations League semi-final between Spain and France will take place on June 5 at the MHP Arena in Stuttgart, Germany. Spain vs. France: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Spain

The team performed best in the group stage of League A, earning 16 points from 6 games (5 wins and 1 draw). Luis de la Fuente's men also conceded only 4 goals, a defensive record matched only by Germany. In the quarter-finals, the team faced a tough challenge from the Netherlands: both matches ended 2-2, followed by an exchange of goals in extra time, and Spain eventually triumphed on penalties (5-4). Notably, Spain has reached the Nations League semi-finals for the third consecutive time, having successfully progressed past this stage in the previous two attempts.

• The team has not lost in regular time in 11 consecutive matches in this tournament (7 wins and 4 draws).
• At least three goals have been scored in 90 minutes in Spain's last five Nations League matches.
• The team has opened the scoring in their last seven Nations League encounters.

Predicted lineup for Spain (4-3-3)

Unai Simón – Marc Cucurella, Dean Donny Huijsen, Robin Le Normand, Pedro Porro – Fabián Ruiz, Martín Zubimendi, Pedri – Álvaro Morata, Nico Williams, Lamine Yamal.

Due to injuries and poor form, the following players were not included in the squad: defenders Iñigo Martínez, Dani Carvajal, and Pau Torres, midfielders Rodri Hernández and Marcos Llorente, as well as forwards Ferran Torres and Ayoze Pérez. Defender Pau Cubarsi will join the team on Saturday as he prepares for exams.

France

Like Spain, the French finished first in their group, but they did suffer one defeat (4 wins and 1 draw). The team lost to Italy, whom they surpassed only on tiebreakers. In the quarter-finals, Didier Deschamps' men, like Spain, needed a penalty shootout, as the two matches and extra time against Croatia ended in a draw (0-2, 2-0, extra time 0-0, on penalties 5-4). Notably, France previously played in the Nations League semi-finals in the 2020/21 season and defeated Spain in the final of that tournament (2-1).

• The team has not lost in regular time in 6 of their last 7 Nations League matches (5 wins and 1 draw).
• At least two goals have been scored in 90 minutes in 9 of France's last 10 matches in this tournament.
• France has not conceded in the second half in their last seven Nations League matches.

Predicted lineup for France (4-3-3)

Mike Maignan – Theo Hernández, Ibrahima Konaté, Benjamin Pavard, Malo Gusto – Michael Olise, Manu Koné, Aurélien Tchouaméni – Ousmane Dembélé, Kylian Mbappé, Bradley Barcola.

For various reasons, defenders Dayot Upamecano, Jules Koundé, and William Saliba, midfielder Eduardo Camavinga, and forward Kingsley Coman were not included in the squad. Additionally, forward Antoine Griezmann has retired from international football.

Referee

Michael Oliver (Slovenia)

Matches – 15 (International matches, 2024/25);

Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 62;

Average yellow cards per match – 4.1;

Red cards shown – 3;

Average fouls per match – 22;

Penalties – 33%.

Match Prediction: Spain vs. France

The upcoming match features the two previous Nations League winners. In this clash, I slightly favor Spain, who have not suffered a defeat in this season's Nations League, confidently navigating the tournament. Spain's excellent form is also noteworthy; they have not lost in regular time at the official level for 23 matches (18 wins and 5 draws).

Didier Deschamps' side has not been as convincing over the past year. In their last 10 official games, France has recorded five wins, two draws, and three losses, including a defeat to Spain in a crucial European Championship semi-final (1-2). Additionally, Spain has lost to France only once in their last five official encounters (3 wins and 1 draw).

My prediction – Spain with a handicap (0)