Spartak Moscow Form
Under Carcedo the red-and-whites have suffered only two defeats in 10 games in the Russian Cup and league. However, since the international break the Moscow side have been regularly making defensive errors – in four matches over this period they kept a clean sheet only in the cup tie against Zenit (1:0 after penalties), where they started to shut the game down even before half-time. Against Akhmat (3:1) Spartak Moscow seized the initiative (1.50 vs 0.71 in xG), but in the previous round they were unable to beat Rostov (1:1) playing in the same style. Despite having the best expected goals figure in the league over the spring period (13.17 xG), the red-and-whites have conceded 10 goals – only five teams have a worse defensive record. At home the Moscow side have scored 23 goals – the second-worst tally among clubs who have picked up 26+ points on their own ground. Without Wu (suspension for yellow cards) Litvinov will be forced to drop into the back line, and he may lack aerial presence when battling with Cordoba.
Key Spartak Moscow numbers:
Over the spring part of the season Carcedo’s team have overperformed by 3.20 points on xPTS. Only Rubin (4.61) have a better figure.
Spartak Moscow’s main centre-forward Ugalde has failed to score in eight consecutive matches. His last goal came in the cup game against Dynamo Moscow (2:5) on 5 March.
At home in the Russian Premier League Spartak Moscow have generated 18.90 xG – among the top seven only Baltika (17.69) have a worse figure.
Potential Spartak Moscow Lineup
Formation (4-2-3-1): Aleksandr Maksimenko – Aleksandr Djiku, Roman Zobnin, Daniil Denisov, Ruslan Litvinov – Gedson Fernandes, Nail Umyarov – Marquinhos, Ezequiel Barco, Pablo Solari – Manfred Ugalde
Unavailable: Christopher Wu (suspension for yellow cards), Srdjan Babic (injury).
Krasnodar Form
In recent meetings with Zenit (1:1) and Baltika (2:2) Krasnodar have shown character, coming from behind more than once against serious opponents. However, that did not help them retain top spot in the league – Zenit now sit above them with a one-point advantage. One of the main arguments in favour of Musaev’s team is Cordoba’s outstanding form: the Colombian has become the league’s top scorer (14+5), while Spertsyan is not providing him with chances – the captain is still carrying an injury. Away from home Krasnodar have earned more points than anyone else (23) while also boasting an excellent defence – seven goals conceded in 12 games (the best record). However, in Moscow the defending champions will push forward – there is a high chance they will be hit by dangerous counter-attacks from Spartak Moscow’s powerful attack.
Key Krasnodar numbers:
In the spring phase Cordoba has recorded 6+1 in seven games.
Away from home Krasnodar have suffered only one defeat in 12 Premier League matches (the best record).
Since October Krasnodar have failed to score in only one of their 10 away games.
Potential Krasnodar Lineup
Formation (5-4-1): Stanislav Agkatsev – Lucas Olaza, Diego Costa, Vitor Tormena, Giovanni Gonzalez – Aleksandr Chernikov, Nikita Krivtsov – Joao Batchi, Eduard Spertsyan, Juan Boselli – Jhon Cordoba.
Unavailable: Victor Sa, Sergei Petrov (both injured).
Spartak Moscow vs Krasnodar: Match Prediction
Krasnodar won the reverse fixture – on that occasion Cordoba had 1+1 by the 59th minute, while Spartak Moscow pulled one back right at the end, playing with a man advantage (2:1). In that game, still under Stankovic, the red-and-whites had more of the ball (56–43 in % possession) but created far less (0.56 vs 1.54 in xG). Without Wu the red-and-whites will suffer a noticeable drop in defensive quality, and Litvinov’s enforced move into defence will also weaken the holding midfield area. Gedson will partner Umyarov – the Portuguese midfielder will add creativity, but Spertsyan will more often find free space. Krasnodar are capable of putting pressure on the opposition in any spell of the game, and they also have a strong bench. Carcedo can also refresh his side with substitutions, but they can only really inject energy into the attack – there are few options in defence. Krasnodar will take into account the mistakes from the matches against Zenit and Baltika, where the goals conceded came from individual errors – Tormena’s blunder in the last round alone is a case in point. Now the former league leaders cannot afford to slip up – the team are motivated and aggressive.
Confident Bet
We believe the bookmakers are overestimating Spartak Moscow’s chances, as even during their unbeaten run not everything was as smooth as it seemed. Of course, home advantage will play its part, but Krasnodar are strong on their travels – the whole league campaign has confirmed that. In the betting line we single out the double-chance option on Krasnodar, for whom a defeat in Moscow could effectively end the title race.
Prediction: Krasnodar, double chance
Alternative Bet for the Match
Spartak Moscow and Krasnodar are among the most entertaining teams in the Russian Premier League: in Spartak Moscow’s 25 league games Over 2.5 goals has landed 14 times, while Krasnodar have the second-best away attack (20 goals). If the score is level at half-time, Musaev will have to take risks – the visitors may not be satisfied even with dropping two points. In an end-to-end game there could be plenty of goals – the first meeting between these sides is clear proof of that. Over 2.5 goals looks like a solid bet for the match of the round.
Prediction: Over 2.5 goals
