The first leg of the 2025/26 Russian Cup quarter-final in the RPL Path between Spartak and Lokomotiv will take place on November 6 at the Lukoil Arena in Moscow. Spartak vs. Lokomotiv: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Spartak
The Moscow club clinched the top spot in Group C thanks to a victory in the 6th round against Makhachkala (3-1). Dejan Stanković's side collected 13 points (4 wins and 1 draw in regular time) and surpassed Dynamo only on additional criteria. Spartak was the best in the group for goals scored (13) and conceded (5). However, they failed to keep a clean sheet in 6 of their last 8 matches in the national Cup. It's worth noting that the team has reached the semi-finals of the Russian Cup for four consecutive seasons.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Spartak's last 8 matches in the national Cup.
- The team has not lost in regular time in 8 of their last 10 matches in this tournament (7 wins, 1 draw).
- Spartak conceded in 7 of their last 9 home games in the Russian Cup.
Predicted lineup for Spartak (4-3-3)
Ilya Pomazun – Egor Guziev, Ilya Samoshnikov, Alexander Djiku, Alexander Dobroditsky – Nail Umyarov, Christopher Martins, Igor Dmitriev – Anton Zabolotny, Nikita Massalyga, Marquinhos.
Defenders Alexander Djiku and Srđan Babić are injured.
Lokomotiv
The "Railroaders" finished second in their group. The team secured 4 victories and suffered two defeats (one in a penalty shootout) against CSKA, who won Group D. However, Mikhail Galaktionov's team scored more goals than CSKA – 10. Lokomotiv kept a clean sheet in three group matches. Additionally, the club has advanced past the quarter-final stage in the last three editions of the tournament.
- No more than 3 goals were scored in 10 of Lokomotiv's last 11 games in the national Cup.
- Away in this tournament, the club has won 4 of their last 5 matches (1 loss).
- In 5 of their last 7 away games in the Russian Cup, the "Railroaders" conceded exactly 1 goal.
Predicted lineup for Lokomotiv (4-5-1)
Ilya Lantratov – Cristian Ramirez, Egor Pogostnov, Evgeny Morozov, Maxim Nenakhov – Danil Prutsev, Zelimkhan Bakaev, Sergey Pinyaev, Artem Timofeev, Vladislav Sarveli – Nikolay Komlichenko.
Forwards Sergey Pinyaev and Dmitry Vorobyov are injured.
Referee
Pavel Kukuyan (Russia)
Matches – 7 (Russian Cup, 2023/24 - 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 25;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.6;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 26;
Penalties – 14%.
Match Prediction: Spartak vs. Lokomotiv
Bookmakers favor Dejan Stanković's side. Yes, Spartak has the advantage in home head-to-head meetings, but the team's current form makes me skeptical of the odds.
Lokomotiv's defeat in the last Premier League round away to Zenit was their first in 17 previous official matches (9 wins, 7 draws). During this period, Mikhail Galaktionov's team also defeated Spartak (4-2). Potential squad rotation in the cup match should not hinder Lokomotiv, as they have lost only three times in their last 14 away games in this tournament, with all losses by a minimal margin.
Spartak has secured 5 victories this season with at least a two-goal advantage. However, it's worth noting the level of opponents: only Rubin is in the top half of the league table, while the other opponents are battling for survival. It's unclear why Dejan Stanković's side should confidently beat Lokomotiv, who are aiming high.
My prediction: Lokomotiv with a +1 handicap
