The first leg of the Champions League 2024/25 playoff between Sporting (Portugal) and Borussia Dortmund (Germany) will take place on February 11 at the Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon. Sporting vs. Borussia Dortmund: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Sporting
The team started the group stage confidently, winning 3 out of 4 matches, but a subsequent series of three defeats jeopardized the Portuguese side's prospects. Nevertheless, a draw in the last round secured their playoff spot. Notably, Sporting scored in all their matches in the 2024/25 Champions League. The last time they participated in Europe's top tournament was in the 2022/23 season, finishing third in their group.
Midfielder Morten Hjulmand will miss the match due to suspension. Midfielders Jeny Catamo, Pedro Gonçalves, and forward Nuno Santos are injured.
- Both opponents scored in Sporting's last five Champions League games.
- The number "1" appeared in the final scoreline in 6 of Sporting's last 7 Champions League matches.
- In 5 of their last 6 home games in this tournament, the team conceded at least one goal.
Predicted lineup for Sporting (4-4-2)
Rui Silva – Maximiliano Araujo, Ivan Fresneda, Ousmane Diomande, Gonçalo Inácio – Geovani Kenda, João Simões, Matheus Reis, Hidemasa Morita – Viktor Gyökeres, Francisco Trincão.
Borussia Dortmund
Last year's finalists showed uncompromising results in the group stage. The Dortmund side secured 5 wins and suffered 3 defeats, two of which were against Spanish giants Real Madrid and Barcelona. Ultimately, Borussia finished 10th, missing the top 8 by just one point. Notably, with 22 goals, the German club was the most prolific among teams reaching the playoffs.
Midfielder Felix Nmecha and defender Ramy Bensebaini will miss the match due to injuries.
- At least three goals were scored in 7 of Dortmund's last 9 Champions League matches.
- Borussia opened the scoring in 7 of their last 8 games in this tournament.
- The team has defeated their upcoming opponent in 3 of their 4 head-to-head meetings in the Champions League (1 defeat).
Predicted lineup for Borussia Dortmund (4-5-1)
Gregor Kobel – Yan Couto, Nico Schlotterbeck, Waldemar Anton, Julian Ryerson – Emre Can, Marcel Sabitzer, Julian Brandt, Pascal Groß, Jamie Bynoe-Gittens – Serhou Guirassy.
Referee
Espen Eskås (Norway)
Matches – 8 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 35;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.4;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 13%.
Sporting vs. Borussia Dortmund: Match Prediction
Both teams demonstrated decent attacking play in the group stage, scoring in all their matches. However, defensively, both clubs have room for improvement. I am confident that the head-to-head clash between such opponents will be productive.
The Portuguese side has failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five Champions League games. During this period, even Bologna and Club Brugge, whose average scoring in the group stage was less than one goal per match, managed to score against Sporting. Additionally, at home in this tournament, the team has conceded in 7 of their last 9 matches.
Dortmund last kept a clean sheet in an official match back in late November. Borussia ended the main stage of the Champions League with a 3-match streak of conceding goals. It's also worth noting that the Germans have scored against Sporting in all their head-to-head meetings in this tournament, but Borussia has failed to keep a clean sheet in both encounters held in Portugal.
My prediction: Both teams to score – yes
