The Matchday 26 clash in the Bundesliga between St. Pauli and Hoffenheim will take place on March 14 at the Millerntor Stadium in Hamburg. St. Pauli vs. Hoffenheim: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
St. Pauli
The Hamburg side ended a four-match losing streak in the league with a 1-1 draw against Wolfsburg in the last round. Additionally, Alexander Blessin's squad scored for the first time during this stretch. However, their winless run has now reached six games. In the standings, St. Pauli remains in 15th place, but their gap from the relegation playoff zone has shrunk to two points.
- At least one opponent failed to score in 10 of St. Pauli's last 12 Bundesliga matches.
- The club has not won in 5 of their last 6 home league matches (1 draw, 4 losses).
- In 7 of their last 9 home games in this tournament, the team has not conceded more than one goal.
Projected lineup for St. Pauli (3-4-3)
Nikola Vasilj – Sibe van der Heyden, Hauke Wahl, David Nemeth – Philipp Treu, Lars Ritzka, Jackson Irvine, Eric Smith – Noah Weißhaupt, Danel Sinani, Oladapo Afolayan.
Forward Morgan Guilavogui and midfielder James Sands are sidelined with injuries.
Hoffenheim
The Sinsheim team drew 1-1 at home against Heidenheim in the last round. The team is unbeaten in four Bundesliga matches (2 wins, 2 draws), marking the longest unbeaten streak for Christian Ilzer's side this season. However, they have kept a clean sheet in only one of these encounters. Moreover, the club has only three clean sheets in the current tournament edition. In the main standings, Hoffenheim remains in 13th place.
- Hoffenheim has not scored more than one goal in 5 of their last 6 league games.
- The team has not won in 9 of their last 12 away Bundesliga matches (4 draws, 5 losses).
- The club has conceded in 6 of their last 7 away games in this tournament.
Projected lineup for Hoffenheim (4-4-2)
Oliver Baumann – Valentin Jander, Arthur Chaves, Pavel Kaderabek, Leo Estigor – Diadie Samassekou, Finn Ole Becker, Tom Bischof, Andrej Kramaric – Gift Orban, Haris Tabakovic.
Defender Arthur Chaves will miss the match due to an accumulation of yellow cards. Midfielder Diadie Samassekou and forward Adam Hložek are injured.
Referee
Felix Brych (Germany)
Matches – 10 (Bundesliga, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 29;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.9;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 30%.
St. Pauli vs. Hoffenheim: Match Prediction
St. Pauli is fighting for survival but has shown solid defensive performances. Alexander Blessin's side has conceded only 30 goals in the current league, a number some teams in the European competition zone can't boast. In terms of xGA, St. Pauli ranks in the top 6 of the tournament. However, all their problems stem from a weak attack: just one goal scored in their last five Bundesliga matches. At home, they have scored the fewest goals in this tournament edition (7 goals).
Hoffenheim, although scoring in four consecutive league matches, has raised concerns about their attacking potential in the last two games. Christian Ilzer's team only managed one goal each against Bochum and Holstein Kiel, two clubs among the worst in terms of goals conceded. Furthermore, Hoffenheim has not scored more than once in 10 of their last 12 away Bundesliga matches.
My prediction: Total under 3
* The starting lineup for each team is based on their previous match in this tournament.
