The first match of the Stanley Cup semi-final between the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers will take place on May 22 at the American Airlines Center. Dallas vs. Edmonton: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Dallas Stars
Peter DeBoer's team defeated Winnipeg in six games in the previous series, securing a spot in the Stanley Cup semi-final for the third consecutive year. Notably, the club has lost at this stage in six games over the past two years, meeting Edmonton during the 2023/24 season. After two rounds, Mikko Rantanen stands out for Dallas with 19 points (9 goals, 10 assists), making him the top scorer in this Stanley Cup edition.
In these playoffs, Dallas ranks among the top three teams in goals conceded, with 38 goals against. However, they are also leaders in power play efficiency (30.8%) and rank third in penalty kill success (86.1%).
- Dallas has scored at least three goals in regular time in 7 of their last 9 NHL home games.
- The club has won six consecutive home games in the league (2 in overtime).
- No more than six goals have been scored in the first three periods in 5 of Dallas's last 7 NHL home matches.
Edmonton Oilers
Chris Knoblauch's team faced Vegas in the previous round, defeating them in five games. This marks the club's third Stanley Cup semi-final appearance in the last four seasons, having reached the final last year in six games. Notably, after advancing past the semi-finals last season, Edmonton played in the final for the first time in 18 years. In the current playoffs, Connor McDavid has 17 points (3 goals, 14 assists), while Leon Draisaitl trails by just one point (5 goals, 11 assists), both ranking among the top five scorers. Evan Bouchard also stands out as the leading defenseman in this Stanley Cup edition (4 goals, 8 assists).
In terms of goals scored, Edmonton is second only to Florida, having scored 43 times. However, they are also one of the top teams in goals conceded (34 goals) and have one of the worst penalty kill percentages (66.7%).
- Edmonton has not scored more than three goals in regular time in their last six NHL meetings at Dallas.
- The team has won 6 of their last 8 away league games (2 in overtime).
- The club has conceded at least three goals in regular time in 9 of their last 12 NHL away matches.
Dallas vs. Edmonton: Match Prediction
A significant question is how well Dallas can contain one of the league's best offenses. Edmonton consistently scores heavily, netting at least three goals in 9 of their 11 Stanley Cup games this season, so breaking through the opponent's defense shouldn't be a challenge. At the same time, Edmonton's defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of at least three goals in these playoffs, so Dallas should capitalize, having scored at least three goals in regulation time in 6 of their last 9 NHL games.
The teams don't lack scoring ability, as seen in their head-to-head statistics: in 14 of their last 18 encounters, they scored at least five goals in regulation time. In their two previous meetings this season, each team scored at least three goals in regulation. Edmonton should hit their minimum, and given their defensive lapses, Dallas's leaders will likely make their mark. I expect both teams to score at least a couple of goals each.
My prediction: Both teams to score over 1.5 goals
