The semifinal match of the 2026 World Junior Championship between Sweden and Finland will take place on 5 january at Grand Casino Arena in St. Paul. Sweden vs Finland: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Sweden National Team
The Sweden national team beat Latvia 6:3 in their previous match. This victory allowed the squad to reach the semifinals of the World Junior Championship. The side has not suffered a single defeat in the current tournament and finished the group stage in first place with 12 points. No other team in the top division accumulated that many points. The last time the squad contested medals was in 2024, when they won silver. They last won the championship in 2012.
- No more than six goals were scored in regulation time in 6 of Sweden's previous 9 games at the World Junior Championship.
- The team won in regulation time in 10 of their last 12 matches in this tournament.
- Sweden conceded at least two goals in regulation time in 9 of their previous 10 World Junior Championship matches.
Finland National Team
The Finland national team sensationally beat the United States 4:3 in overtime in their previous match. The victory allowed the squad to defeat the reigning champion and advance to the semifinals, although the side suffered two defeats (one in overtime) in the current World Junior Championship. The squad finished the group stage in third place with seven points. In 2025 the squad won silver, and they last became champions in 2019.
- At least six goals were scored in regulation time in 7 of Finland's previous 8 World Junior Championship games.
- The team did not lose after 60 minutes in 10 of their last 12 World Junior Championship matches (5 wins, 5 draws).
- Finland did not concede more than three goals in regulation time in 10 of their previous 12 matches at this tournament.
Sweden vs Finland: Match Prediction
The semifinal encounter promises to be tense. Both teams often reach this stage of the World Junior Championship and assess the situation and risks soberly. The match is unlikely to be high-scoring; both sides will play cautiously, as it is difficult to single out a clear underdog.
Most likely, because of tight defensive play, the teams will not score more than six goals against each other. Moreover, their head-to-head statistics are as follows: in 9 of the previous 10 meetings the teams did not score more than six goals in regulation time (1 return).
Individually, the teams also play quite modestly in the World Junior Championship and do not score many goals. Thus, in 6 of the previous 9 tournament matches both teams did not score more than six goals after three periods (1 return).
Finland, in 8 of their previous 12 matches in this competition, did not see more than six total goals combined with their opponents. (1 return) It should be noted that even if a team demonstrates a productive attacking performance during the group stage, it often approaches the playoffs with a different tactic to reduce the risk of an early exit.
Prediction: Under 6 goals
