Sweden U20 vs Slovakia U20: prediction & betting odds December 26, 2025

The Matchday 1 fixture of the 2026 World Junior Championship between Sweden and Slovakia will take place on 26 December at the Grand Casino Arena in Saint Paul. Sweden – Slovakia: prediction and betting odds, statistics.

Sweden

Sweden finished the group stage of the last World Junior Championship as leaders, the only team to secure the maximum points. However, in the knockout phase they progressed no further than the quarter-finals and ultimately finished fourth after losing the bronze-medal game to the Czech Republic. Notably, this is the second time in three years Sweden failed to win a medal at the WJC; their last title came in 2012.

The Swedish squad for the upcoming WJC stands out for its attacking depth — on paper, their forward group could be one of the tournament's best. Among the standout Swedes are forwards Viggo Björk and Ivar Stenberg, both likely to be first-round selections in the 2026 NHL Draft. Stenberg is even tipped as a possible top-five pick; his form is impressive — in 25 appearances for Frölunda this season he has recorded 24 points (6+18). Defensively, Sweden will again prioritise control and minimising errors. The defence is not flawless, especially compared with their potent attack, but it will be difficult for opponents to find weaknesses. Their goaltending corps is experienced — all three goalkeepers have international exposure and look solid on paper.

• Sweden failed to score more than six goals in regulation time in 7 of their last 8 head-to-head WJC meetings.
• The team has not won by more than a two-goal margin after 60 minutes in five of their previous WJC matches.
• Sweden conceded at least two goals in regulation in five of their last games at the World Junior Championship.

Slovakia

In last year’s WJC group stage, Slovakia finished third and exited the tournament in the quarter-finals after a 3-5 defeat to Finland. The team reached the knockout stage for the third consecutive year but has yet to progress beyond the quarter-finals, having lost at that stage to Finland in two consecutive tournaments. Historically, Slovakia have medalled at the WJC only once, claiming bronze in 2015.

Slovakia arrive with an experienced goaltending tandem: Alan Lendak and Michal Pradel both featured in last year’s tournament and, by goals conceded, ranked third in their group. Among Slovakia’s top prospects — particularly with the 2026 NHL Draft approaching — are Tomas Hrenko, Adam Nemec and Adam Golier; the coaching staff clearly places high hopes on them. Hrenko and Nemec, playing for Nitra this season, have posted 17 (5+12) and 15 (3+12) points respectively.

• Slovakia have scored at least two goals in regulation time in 6 of their last 7 head-to-head WJC meetings.
• No more than eight total goals were recorded after three periods in six of Slovakia’s previous seven WJC games.
• The team conceded more than five goals in regulation in only one of their last six WJC matches; in six of those games they allowed five or fewer.

Sweden – Slovakia: Match Prediction

Sweden arrive with strong ambitions and clear objectives for this WJC. Historically they have rarely struggled in the group stage and are one of the most consistent sides at this level. Given Sweden’s balanced roster and a forward group that looks among the most dangerous on paper, it is unlikely they will underperform in their opening match — especially against a relatively accommodating opponent.

For Slovakia, Sweden is not an opponent you would expect to take points from, particularly at the start of a tournament when it is hard to predict each side’s level. The teams met in a pre-tournament friendly in November, with Slovakia losing 3-6. The question is whether Sweden will exert so much effort right at the outset, but in their last four official head-to-heads they have won by at least a three-goal margin, and in 5 of the last 6 WJC head-to-heads Sweden secured victories by a similar gap.

I expect Sweden to prevail by that margin once again. My prediction: Sweden with handicap (-3)