The first-round playoff clash in the Stanley Cup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators will take place on April 21 at the Scotiabank Arena. Toronto vs. Ottawa: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Craig Berube's team finished second in the Eastern Conference at the end of the regular season, topping the Atlantic Division with 108 points. Over the course of 82 games, Toronto emerged as one of the leaders in terms of victories this season, second only to Winnipeg (56), and ranked among the top five in the fewest losses (26). Mitchell Marner was the team's standout performer in the current regular season, also ranking among the top five scorers in the league (27+75). Additionally, William Nylander, the NHL's second-highest goal scorer this season, netted a total of 45 goals.
The upcoming Stanley Cup will mark Toronto's tenth consecutive appearance, although the team has only advanced past the first round once during this period. Last season, they were eliminated by Boston in the round of 16, losing in a seven-game series.
- Toronto has won their last seven home games in the NHL (2 in OT).
- The team has scored at least three goals in regulation time in 4 of their last 5 home league games.
- No more than six goals have been scored over three periods in Toronto's last ten NHL games.
Ottawa Senators
The team made the playoffs from the sixth spot in the Eastern Conference, finishing fourth in the Atlantic Division with a total of 97 points for the season. Among the playoff-bound teams in the East, Ottawa has one of the lowest scoring records, with only 243 goals. Notably, the team played ten shutout games during the regular season, the best in the NHL, matched only by Winnipeg. Tim Stützle was the most productive player for Ottawa this season, amassing 79 points (24+55), while Brady Tkachuk led the team in goals with 29.
The upcoming Stanley Cup will be Ottawa's first appearance since 2017. The last time they reached the playoffs, they advanced to the semifinals but lost in seven games to Pittsburgh.
- Ottawa has not lost in regulation time in 7 of their last 10 NHL away games (4 wins, 3 draws).
- The team has not conceded more than three goals in regulation time in 4 of their last 5 away league games.
- At least six goals have been scored in regulation time in Ottawa's last five NHL matches.
Toronto vs. Ottawa: Match Prediction
This season, Toronto has proven to be a disciplined and reliable team. Evaluating their results in the current regular season, a trend emerges: most of Toronto's matches ended with a minimal margin, indicating the team's ability to maintain an advantage and play strategically. Their defense appears solid, and they enter the playoffs as a systematic team that should finally advance past the first round, leveraging their key strengths.
Meanwhile, Ottawa's defense is not as convincing, ranking just outside the top ten in the regular season. However, based on their play, the team can endure opponents under certain circumstances and, if they have the lead, defend their advantage. In a series where both teams are similar in this regard, high scoring is unlikely.
This season, in all three head-to-head meetings, the teams did not score more than six goals in regulation time. Additionally, when playing at Toronto's venue, opponents have not exceeded this total in 6 of the last 8 NHL encounters. I believe that at the start of the series, a goal fest is unlikely. My prediction: Total under 6.5 goals
