The second leg of the 2025/26 Champions League play-off tie between Atalanta BC (Italy) and Borussia Dortmund (Germany) will take place on 25 February at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo. The score in the first leg was 2:0 in favour of Borussia Dortmund. Atalanta BC vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Atalanta BC
Atalanta BC lost 0:2 in the first leg, which was the club’s third consecutive defeat in the Champions League. In addition, the home team failed to score in back-to-back matches in this tournament for the first time in its Champions League history. The hosts have also conceded in four straight games. To reach the next round, the Italians need to win by at least three goals. Incidentally, during the 2025/26 Champions League group stage, Atalanta BC beat another German side 3:0.
- At least one of the teams failed to score in five of Atalanta BC’s previous seven Champions League matches.
- At home, the club have failed to win eight of their last 11 Champions League games (four draws, four defeats).
- In five of their previous seven home matches in this tournament, the hosts scored at least twice.
Potential Atalanta BC Lineup (3-4-3)
Marco Carnesecchi – Giorgio Scalvini, Onest Ahanor, Berat Djimsiti – Nicola Zalewski, Ederson, Mario Pasalic, Davide Zappacosta – Marten de Roon, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Nikola Krstovic.
Midfielder Charles De Ketelaere and forward Giacomo Raspadori are injured.
Borussia Dortmund
With their first-leg victory, Borussia Dortmund ended a three-match winless run in the Champions League (one draw, two defeats). In addition, the visitors’ players kept a clean sheet for only the second time in this season’s edition of the tournament. To progress to the next round, the Germans can afford to lose the return leg by a one-goal margin. If Borussia Dortmund lose by exactly two goals, the tie will go to extra time. Notably, the team’s last two Champions League defeats both ended 0:2.
- At least three goals were scored in nine of Borussia Dortmund’s last 12 matches in this tournament.
- Away from home in the Champions League, the club have failed to win four of their previous five games (one draw, three defeats).
- In five consecutive away matches in the Champions League, the Germans have conceded at least twice.
Potential Borussia Dortmund Lineup (3-5-2)
Gregor Kobel – Ramy Bensebaini, Waldemar Anton, Yan Couto – Job Bellingham, Felix Nmecha, Julian Brandt, Julian Ryerson, Daniel Svensson – Serhou Guirassy, Maximilian Beier.
Defenders Niklas Sule and Filippo Mane, as well as midfielder Emre Can, are injured.
Referee
Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez
(Spain)
Matches – 9 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second bookings) – 29;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.2;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 26;
Penalties – 22%.
Atalanta BC vs Borussia Dortmund: Match Prediction
Borussia Dortmund will travel to Italy with one goal – to protect the advantage they have built up. Although the visitors do not stand out for reliable defensive play, we are confident the Germans can produce one match with maximum concentration. Moreover, the return of a first-choice centre-back is expected, and that should clearly add confidence. We think Borussia Dortmund will even counter-attack with one eye on their own goal. It is also important to add that the team played a league match as recently as Saturday, meaning they will have more time to recover and prepare than the Italians.
The hosts are facing a tough task. The home side need to score at least twice, while also preventing the opposition from scoring. The second part seems simpler: Atalanta BC have shown their defensive ability on many occasions. But goals are more of a problem. In the current edition of the tournament, the squad have scored more than two goals only once, and that came against Eintracht, whose defence cannot withstand any criticism. In Dortmund, the Italians even had territorial superiority, but failed to make it count, producing just 0.47 xG.
Prediction: Under 3 goals
