Matchday 5 of the 2024/25 Europa League group stage between Athletic (Spain) and Elfsborg (Sweden) will take place on November 28 at San Mamés Stadium in Bilbao. Athletic vs. Elfsborg: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: Giorgi Kruashvili (Georgia)
Matches – 8 (International matches, 2023/24–2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 30;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.8;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 13%.
Predicted lineups for Athletic vs. Elfsborg
Athletic (4-2-3-1): Julen Agirrezabala – Andoni Gorosabel, Yuri Berchiche, Aitor Paredes, Dani Vivian – Benat Prados, Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta – Inaki Williams, Alex Berenguer, Nico Williams – Alvaro Djalo.
Elfsborg (3-4-3): Isak Pettersson – Terry Yegbe, Ibrahim Buhari, Sebastian Holmen – Niklas Hult, Timothy Ouma, Andri Baldursson, Simon Hedlund – Ahmed Qasem, Michael Baidoo, Arber Zeneli.
Each team's starting lineup from their previous match in this tournament is indicated.
Athletic
The Basques have yet to lose a match in the Europa League group stage. After a draw against Roma in the first round (1-1), the team secured three consecutive victories, defeating AZ Alkmaar (2-0), Slavia Prague (1-0), and Ludogorets (2-1). With these results, the club is positioned sixth. Notably, the Spaniards have conceded only two goals. Only Ajax has conceded fewer after four games, with just one goal.
- Athletic has not lost in 9 of their last 12 matches in this tournament (7 wins and 2 draws).
- Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 Europa League encounters involving the Basques.
- The number "1" appeared in the final score of 7 of Athletic's last 8 Europa League games.
Elfsborg
The Swedes have secured only one victory, defeating Roma at home with a score of 1-0. The team also had a home draw with Braga (1-1). However, they suffered away defeats to AZ Alkmaar (2-3) and Galatasaray (3-4). Oscar Hiljemark's side is positioned 24th in the Europa League group stage standings. Furthermore, only three teams have conceded more than Elfsborg (8 goals) after four rounds.
- The club has lost only three times in regular time in their last 12 Europa League matches (7 wins and 2 draws).
- No more than two goals have been scored in 90 minutes in 8 of Elfsborg's last 10 games in this tournament.
- The Swedes scored first in 9 of their last 12 Europa League encounters.
Athletic vs. Elfsborg: Match Prediction
Bookmakers offer very low odds on a home win (around 1.2). However, I do not expect the Spaniards to achieve a large-margin victory. The last time the Basques won by three goals was in August 2017 in the Europa League, after which they played 16 matches in this tournament without a single large-margin win. During this period, Athletic has won only three times with a two-goal margin.
Elfsborg last suffered a large-margin defeat in the Europa League in September 2013. Since then, the Swedes have not lost by three or more goals in 29 matches. It is worth noting that during this stretch, the Scandinavians lost only once by a two-goal margin.
Therefore, I believe that even if the hosts win, it will be by no more than two goals. My prediction: Elfsborg with a handicap (+2)
