The first leg of the 2024/25 Europa League semi-final between Athletic (Spain) and Manchester United (England) will take place on May 1 at the San Mamés Stadium in Bilbao. Athletic vs. Manchester United: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Athletic
The Basques have been absent from European competitions since 2018. Their return to continental tournaments has been outstanding, reaching the Europa League semi-finals for the first time since the 2011/12 season. In the playoffs, the Spaniards overcame two rounds, defeating Roma and Rangers. They managed to overcome the Italians thanks to a better result at home (1-2 and 3-1), while against the Scots, Ernesto Valverde's side prevailed due to excellent defensive play – 0-0 and 2-0.
- The club has not lost in 10 of their last 12 Europa League matches (8 wins and 2 draws).
- At least two goals have been scored in 8 of Athletic's last 9 matches in this European competition.
- The Basques have conceded only one goal in the first half of their last eight matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Athletic (4-3-3)
Julen Agirrezabala – Oscar De Marcos, Lekue, Yeray Alvarez, Dani Vivian – Mikel Vesga, Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Oihan Sancet – Alex Berenguer, Nico Williams, Maroan Sannadi.
The only player in the team's infirmary is midfielder Oihan Sancet.
Manchester United
Over the past eight years, the Red Devils have reached the Europa League semi-finals for the fourth time. Like the Basques, the English team advanced directly to the tournament's Round of 16, where they confidently dealt with another La Liga representative, Real Sociedad (1-1 and 4-1). However, they faced difficulties in the previous round: both matches against Lyon ended with the same score of 2-2, and the English side managed to break the French resistance with a victory in extra time (3-2). Notably, this was the first time in European competition history that five goals were scored in extra time. Also, previously, no team had scored two goals after the 120th minute (Manchester United achieved this).
- Both teams scored in 7 of Manchester United's last 8 Europa League matches after 90 minutes.
- In nine of the English team's last matches in this tournament, there was a draw in the first half eight times.
Predicted lineup for Manchester United (3-4-3)
Andre Onana – Harry Maguire, Leni Yoro, Noussair Mazraoui – Diogo Dalot, Patrick Dorgu, Casemiro, Bruno Fernandes – Manuel Ugarte, Alejandro Garnacho, Rasmus Hojlund.
Due to injuries, defenders Diogo Dalot, Aiden Heven, and Lisandro Martinez, as well as forward Joshua Zirkzee and goalkeeper Altay Bayindir, are out of action.
Referee
Espen Eskas (Norway)
Matches – 13 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 53;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.1;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 23%.
Athletic vs. Manchester United: Match Prediction
In a clash between opponents of this caliber, I believe the home field will be the key factor. I predict that the Basques will win the first leg, and in the return match, they will rely on their excellent defense, which is the best in La Liga. Beating the club from Bilbao is incredibly difficult: this season, the Spaniards have won all six of their home matches in the Europa League, conceding only two goals.
It is worth noting that Athletic also shows excellent results in the championship at San Mamés, where they have suffered only one defeat in 17 matches in the current Primera (10 wins and 6 draws). Yes, Manchester United has not lost in this European season, but away from home, they have won only two out of six matches, and those victories were against modest opponents – Viktoria Plzeň and FCSB. It should also be reminded that the Red Devils perform poorly away in the Premier League, where they have won only 4 out of 16 matches this season (5 draws and 7 losses).
My prediction – Athletic to Win
