The second leg of the 2025/26 FONBET Russian Cup RPL Path semi-final tie between Krasnodar and CSKA Moscow will take place on 17 March at the Ozon Arena. The score in the first leg was 3:1 in favour of CSKA Moscow. Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Krasnodar
Murad Musaev's men lost the first leg 1:3. That defeat was the club's first in their last eight Russian Cup matches (in regular time: six wins and one draw). In addition, the last time the home team conceded more than two goals in this competition was back in November 2024. In the return match, the club need to win by at least a three-goal margin. In the current edition of the tournament, Krasnodar have recorded three such wins, but in their entire history the team have never thrashed CSKA Moscow. If the club beat the Moscow side by exactly two goals, the tie will go to a penalty shootout.
- At least three goals have been scored in 12 of the previous 13 Krasnodar games in the national Cup.
- On home soil in this competition, the team have not won after 90 minutes in four of their last six matches (one draw, three defeats).
- In six of their previous eight home games in the Russian Cup, Krasnodar have not scored more than once.
Potential Krasnodar Lineup (4-5-1)*
Stanislav Agkatsev – Valentin Paltsev, Jubal, Diego Costa, Artem Khmarin – Aleksandr Chernikov, Joao Batxi, Douglas Augusto, Nikita Krivtsov, Juan Boselli – Moses David Cobnan.
Defender Giovanni Gonzalez is suspended.
CSKA Moscow
The Army Men were not fazed by the goal they conceded in the first half, as the Moscow side responded with three of their own. It was the team's third win in their last four matches in the national Cup (one defeat), and in every victory during that spell Fabio Celestini's men scored at least twice. However, CSKA Moscow have conceded in a fourth straight match in this tournament. To reach the RPL Path final, the capital club can even lose by a one-goal margin. At the same time, the Moscow side have avoided defeat against Krasnodar in five of the last six official head-to-head meetings (four wins, one draw).
- In 10 of their last 11 Russian Cup games, the capital club have not conceded more than one goal.
- Away from home in this competition, CSKA Moscow have not won after 90 minutes in seven of their previous eight matches (five draws, two defeats).
- In six of their last eight away matches in the national Cup, the team have failed to find the net.
Potential CSKA Moscow Lineup (4-3-3)*
Vladislav Torop – Joao Victor, Milan Gajic, Mateus Reis, Moyzes Barbosa – Danil Krugovoy, Ivan Oblyakov, Matvey Kislyak – Danila Kozlov, Kirill Glebov, Luciano Gondou.
Referee
Inal Tanashev (Russia)
Matches – 5 (Russian Cup, 2024/25 - 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 24;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.9;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 29;
Penalties – 60%.
Krasnodar vs CSKA Moscow: Match Prediction
The first leg had it all: goals, cards of both colours, and a penalty. This rivalry is becoming increasingly fierce. We want to believe the upcoming meeting will also delight football fans, especially as Krasnodar have to overturn the deficit. Murad Musaev's men know how to get the required result at home: the club have won eight straight home matches across the Premier League and the Russian Cup. That run also includes a game against the Army Men. What is more, Krasnodar have not lost to CSKA Moscow on their own ground in 11 official head-to-head meetings (seven wins, four draws). Meanwhile, the Moscow side made a poor start to the Premier League after the season resumed – Fabio Celestini's men have suffered three defeats in a row.
There should be goals in this match too. The Army Men need to protect the advantage they have built up, but the team's defence does not look impenetrable. In the current Russian Cup campaign, the Moscow side have conceded in seven of nine matches. As for the hosts, they need to score at least twice. Krasnodar have met that mark in five consecutive official home games. However, there are also questions about Murad Musaev's men at the back – not a single clean sheet since the winter break.
At this stage, there is room for error, as the tournament also has a lower bracket. Therefore, considering the above facts, we suggest the bet Krasnodar double chance + Over 1.5 goals.
Prediction: Krasnodar double chance + Over 1.5 goals
* For each team, the starting line-up from their previous match in this tournament is listed.
