The Matchday 6 fixture of the 2025/26 UEFA Conference League group stage between Mainz (Germany) and Samsunspor (Turkey) will be played on December 18 at Meva Arena. Mainz – Samsunspor: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Mainz
In the last round, Urs Fischer's side drew 1-1 at Lech Poznań. As a result, Mainz — who began the group stage with three straight wins — failed to win for the second consecutive Conference League match, having lost previously to Universitatea Craiova (0-1). Additionally, the club scored more than one goal in just one of their last five matches in this competition. In the table, Mainz sit eighth with ten points and have already secured a place in the knockout phase. A win here would take them straight into the round of 16.
- The team is unbeaten in 7 of their last 9 European matches (5 wins, 2 draws).
- No more than two goals were scored in 4 of their last 5 Conference League games.
- Mainz have conceded at most one goal in six of their last matches in this competition.
Probable Mainz lineup (3-4-3)
Daniel Bachmann – Danny da Costa, Andreas Hanche-Olsen, Dominik Kohr – Nicolas Ferrachnig, Kaisyu Sano, Lee Jae-sung, Silvan Widmer – Paul Nebel, Nelson Weiper, Benedikt Hollerbach.
Goalkeeper Robin Zentner and defenders Maxim Leitsch, Philipp Mwene and Anthony Kassi will miss the game through injury. Defender Nicolas Ferrachnig is suspended.
Samsunspor
The Turks failed to take points in the last round, losing 1-2 at home to AEK Athens. That was Samsunspor's first defeat in the group stage after three wins and a draw in the previous four Conference League matches. The side also conceded in the second straight game of this campaign, having kept clean sheets in the first three group-stage fixtures. Samsunspor sit sixth with ten points, and their place in the knockout phase is secure; a win over Mainz would send them directly into the round of 16.
- The team is unbeaten in 5 of their last 6 European matches (3 wins, 2 draws).
- At least three goals were scored in four of their previous Conference League matches.
- Samsunspor have scored in the first half of their last five games in this competition.
Probable Samsunspor lineup (4-5-1)
Okan Kocuk – Logi Tomasson, Rick van Drongelen, Lubomir Satka, Zeki Yavru – Antoine Makoumbu, Anthony Musaba, Carlo Holse, Olivier Ntcham, Emre Kılınç – Marius.
Referee
Mohammad Al-Emara (Albania)
Matches – 6 (International fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 23;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.8;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 50%.
Match prediction: Mainz vs Samsunspor
Given that both sides have been productive in Europe this season, I expect an open game with chances at both ends. Mainz have failed to leave the pitch without scoring in only 2 of their last 17 European outings, and they have netted seven goals in three home Conference League matches this campaign.
Samsunspor have already scored ten goals in the group stage — a tally matched by only a few clubs — including three apiece against Dynamo Kyiv and Hamrun Spartans, and two in the tie with Breiðablik. However, they have shown defensive vulnerabilities in the last two rounds, conceding four goals across those games.
I expect an exchange of goals in this match. My prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
*The starting XI listed for each team reflects the lineup they used in their previous match in this competition.
