The Matchday 23 Bundesliga encounter between Mainz and St. Pauli will take place on February 22 at the Mewa Arena. Mainz vs. St. Pauli: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Mainz
Bo Henriksen's side secured a 2-0 away victory against Heidenheim in their last outing. Mainz is experiencing a decent run, remaining unbeaten in 3 of their last 4 Bundesliga matches (2 wins, 1 draw). Notably, they have kept three clean sheets during this period, ranking third in the league for the total number of clean sheets this season. In the overall standings, Mainz sits in sixth place.
- No more than two goals have been scored in 6 of Bo Henriksen's last 7 matches in this tournament.
- The team has won 5 of their last 6 home games in the Bundesliga (1 draw).
- In their last seven home league matches, the club has not conceded more than one goal.
Predicted lineup for Mainz (3-5-2)
Robin Zentner – Dominik Kohr, Moritz Jenz, Danny da Costa – Philipp Mwene, Nadiem Amiri, Kaishu Sano, Paul Nebel, Anthony Caci – Jonathan Burkardt, Nelson Weiper.
Defender Stefan Bell is sidelined due to injury.
St. Pauli
After a three-match unbeaten streak in the league (2 wins, 1 draw), Hamburg's side suffered consecutive defeats against Leipzig (0-2) and Freiburg (0-1). St. Pauli has now failed to score in back-to-back Bundesliga matches for the fourth time this season. Additionally, matches involving Alexander Blessin's team are the lowest-scoring in the tournament, averaging exactly 2 goals per game. In the standings, the club is in 14th place.
- At least one opponent has failed to score in 8 of Hamburg's last 9 league matches.
- The team has an 11-match uncompromising streak away in the Bundesliga (4 wins, 7 losses).
- The number "2" has appeared in the final score in 6 of St. Pauli's last 8 away matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for St. Pauli (3-4-3)
Nikola Vasilj – Eric Smith, Hauke Wahl, David Nemeth – Philipp Treu, James Sands, Jackson Irvine, Siebe van der Heyden – Noah Weißhaupt, Johannes Eggestein, Elias Saad.
Defender Manolis Saliakas and forward Morgan Guilavogui are sidelined, with midfielder James Sands out for the season.
Referee
Felix Zwayer (Germany)
Matches – 10 (Bundesliga, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 45;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.5;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 50%.
Match Prediction: Mainz vs. St. Pauli
This matchup does not promise a goal fest, as it features the second and third most reliable defenses in the league, with one team also struggling in attack. Although the first-round meeting saw three goals scored, replicating such scoring will be challenging for both clubs.
Bo Henriksen's side has not conceded more than one goal in seven consecutive home Bundesliga games, managing to contain the attacks of opponents like Stuttgart, Bayern Munich, and Borussia Dortmund. Meanwhile, St. Pauli has scored the fewest goals in the tournament, failing to score more than once in 8 of their last 10 league matches.
Alexander Blessin's side also performs well defensively, ranking fourth in clean sheets. In their last eight Bundesliga matches, only Leipzig has managed to score more than once against St. Pauli.
My prediction: Total under 2.5 goals
