The Matchday 38 Premier League fixture between Newcastle and Everton will take place on May 25 at St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne. Newcastle vs. Everton: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Newcastle
Eddie Howe's side missed the chance to climb to second place in the standings and secure their spot in the Champions League. In their head-to-head clash with Arsenal, the team lost 0-1. As a result, Newcastle dropped to 4th place but still has a good chance to finish in the Champions League zone. To achieve this, the team needs to win in the final round. Notably, Chelsea and Aston Villa, who are in 5th and 6th positions, have the same number of points (66) but a worse goal difference.
- The club has not lost in 8 of their last 10 Premier League matches (7 wins and 1 draw).
- No more than three goals have been scored in 8 of Newcastle's last 11 league games.
- In seven previous first halves at home in the Premier League, the team secured 6 wins and 1 draw.
Predicted lineup for Newcastle (4-2-3-1)
Nick Pope – Sven Botman, Valentino Livramento, Fabian Schar, Dan Burn – Jacob Murphy, Bruno Guimaraes – Sandro Tonali, Anthony Gordon, Harvey Barnes – Callum Wilson.
Everton
The Liverpool side has no tournament motivation but continues to pick up points. Before the start of the final round, the team is in 13th place, which they will not leave. In their last three league matches, David Moyes' team drew with Ipswich (2-2) and defeated Fulham (3-1) and Southampton (2-0). Notably, this season is their best in terms of points collected over the last four years. In the previous three Premier League seasons, Everton did not collect more than 40 points.
- The club has not lost in 14 of their last 17 Premier League matches (7 wins and 7 draws).
- No more than two goals have been scored in 9 of Everton's last 11 league games.
- The Liverpool side has not won the first half in 9 of their last 11 Premier League matches (6 draws and 3 losses).
Predicted lineup for Everton (4-2-3-1)
Jordan Pickford – Vitaliy Mykolenko, Seamus Coleman, Jake O'Brien, Jarrad Branthwaite – Idrissa Gueye, James Garner – Abdoulaye Doucoure, Beto Gomes, Dwight McNeil – Iliman Ndiaye.
Referee
Tony Harrington (England)
Matches – 17 (Premier League, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 68;
Average yellow cards per match – 4;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 24%.
Match Prediction: Newcastle vs. Everton
The hosts of this match cannot afford to drop points in the final round. The team could immediately find themselves in sixth place and miss out on the Champions League. Even a narrow victory would suffice for Newcastle, as they significantly surpass Aston Villa in goal difference (by 13). Eddie Howe's team should not rely on Nottingham Forest defeating Chelsea, but rather solve the problem of finishing in the top five themselves.
I won't risk suggesting a confident win for the hosts, as Everton has been playing significantly better in the second half of the season, not losing by two or more goals in their last 11 away league matches. Despite the good form of the Liverpool side, Newcastle's tournament motivation is far more compelling for betting purposes. Moreover, the hosts have won their last six home Premier League matches, with at least a two-goal margin in the last four. Newcastle has also won 3 of their last 4 home encounters in the Premier League.
My prediction: Newcastle with a handicap (-1)
