The first leg of the 2025/26 Champions League play-off tie between Qarabag FK (Azerbaijan) and Newcastle United Football Club (England) will take place on 18 February at the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium in Baku. Qarabag FK vs Newcastle United Football Club: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Qarabag FK
Qarabag FK became the first Azerbaijani team to reach the Champions League knockouts. In the league phase, Gurban Gurbanov's side collected 10 points (three wins and one draw) to finish 22nd. However, the club also stood out for the wrong reasons, conceding 21 goals—placing them among the five worst teams by that metric. The hosts did score in six of their eight games in the group stage, with both scoreless outings coming away from home.
- The Azerbaijanis have conceded at least twice in six consecutive Champions League matches.
- There were goals in both halves in 10 of the previous 11 Champions League matches involving the home team.
- Both teams scored in seven of Qarabag FK’s last 11 Champions League matches.
Potential Qarabag FK Lineup (4-5-1)
Mateusz Kochalski – Bahlul Mustafazade, Kevin Medina, Mateus Silva, Elvin Jafarguliyev – Marko Jankovic, Abdellah Zoubir, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicalho, Joni Montiel – Camilo Duran.
Newcastle United Football Club
Newcastle United Football Club finished 12th in the league phase. Eddie Howe's men avoided defeat in six of eight matches (four wins and two draws) and found the net in every single game. What is more, the club’s Champions League scoring run now stands at 10 matches. At the other end of the pitch, the visitors were solid, conceding only seven goals—placing them in the tournament’s top four by that metric. It is worth noting that the club have reached the Champions League knockouts for the first time in their history.
- At least three goals were scored in seven of the English side’s previous nine Champions League matches.
- Away from home in this competition, the team have failed to win six of their last seven matches (four draws and two defeats).
- In five of Newcastle United Football Club’s previous seven Champions League matches, they conceded no more than one goal.
Potential Newcastle United Football Club Lineup (4-3-3)
Nick Pope – Lewis Hall, Kieran Trippier, Sven Botman, Malick Thiaw – Jacob Ramsey, Lewis Miley, Sandro Tonali – Nick Woltemade, Jacob Murphy, Harvey Barnes.
Referee
Espen Eskas (Norway)
Matches – 11 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 43;
Yellow cards per match – 3.9;
Red cards shown – 0;
Fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 27%.
Qarabag FK vs Newcastle United Football Club: Match Prediction
The Azerbaijanis begin this two-legged tie at home. Given the team’s poor away results, Gurban Gurbanov's men will put everything into securing a comfortable advantage. In the league phase, the hosts lost only one home match, and even then they did not leave the pitch without scoring. What is more, the club’s home scoring run in this tournament stands at seven games. At the same time, Qarabag FK conceded almost three goals per match on average in the group stage.
The English side look far more reliable defensively. Even so, the away team do still leave gaps on their travels: Newcastle United Football Club conceded in five of their previous six Champions League matches. They are unlikely to keep a clean sheet against the Azerbaijanis, who are proactive at home. However, Eddie Howe's men should have no trouble scoring against this opponent—particularly given the club’s excellent finishing. The English side’s scoring run in this competition has been going since the 2023/24 season and now stands at 10 matches.
Prediction: Both teams to score – Yes
