Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson: Bets and Odds on the Main Fight UFC 249

Update: The fight between Nurmagomedov and Ferguson has officially been cancelled for the fifth time. We are waiting for an updated fight card likely featuring Ferguson. Keep track of all ongoing sports in our betting center.

The upcoming UFC 249 event Khabib Numagomedov vs Tony Ferguson will feature the two best lightweight fighters in the division. The undefeated lightweight champion Nurmagomedov and belt contender Ferguson will meet on April 18 in Brooklyn in the UFC 249 tournament.

There is added anticipation to the event, as the 'Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson' fight bill has already been introduced four times in previous years with no results.

This fight will be held at the Barclays Center Arena. Already, many top sportsbooks are placing the champion Khabib as a heavy favorite, inviting players to bet on another successful fight from the “eagle”.

Khabib Victory

Odds

-277

Ferguson Victory

Odds

+215

Sportsbook Odds for Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson

Despite the fact that all sportsbooks unanimously prefer the Russian fighter, there were those who still believe in Ferguson's victory a little more than others. For example, top sportsbooks like 888sport and Unibet have odds at +195.

Statistics and Physical Data

If you have not truly decided which odds hold the most value and which fighter to bet on, we recommend that you study each of their fighting statistics and the physical data surrounding the fighters. There is also a lot of good advice and information that we will lay out in this pre-fight analysis:

Bets on Khabib vs. Ferguson

For bets on this fight, we must consider that two first-class grapplers will meet, so players can make bets on whether the fight will end by suffocating chokehold. Most sportsbooks are confident that this is how Khabib will win, but not Tony:

Khabib By Submission

Odds

+325

This is evidenced by the odds offered on Ferguson to win the fight this way, which are already slightly higher:

Ferguson By Submission

Odds

+500

However, sportsbooks have little doubt that this fight will not be decided by the judge’s decision but are hesitant to place their confidence that it will end even in the first round:

Khabib in First Round

Odds

+800

Khabib in First Round

Odds

+800

The Main Event Background

If you were to ask fans which fight they want to see the most, many will immediately answer the main battle that is Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson. These are the two best lightweight fighters in the UFC, with all due respect to Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor. The fight between Ferguson- Nurmagomedov has already been attempted four times.

The fight was first announced in 2015, and even then, it was obvious that there existed hostility between the fighters. However, Khabib injured a rib and was eliminated from the TUF 22 tournament, so the fight had to be suspended indefinitely.

In April 2016, management announced Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson for the second time, however this time it was the American who was injured, and the fight was canceled. The matchup between the sport’s two best lightweight fighters was attempted a third time in 2017 but was again canceled, as Khabib had to be hospitalized due to extreme weight loss.

The fourth time this fight was again scheduled in April 2018, and Khabib and Ferguson were ready to determine the lightweight champion. The fourth time seemed to be a charm as it was almost certain that they would finally meet, but Tony injured his knee and withdrew from the tournament.

It got so bad that UFC President Dana White vowed to never again organize a fight between these two. However, the fans would not let the dream of seeing these two fighters go and were pushing for the long-awaited announcement.

Khabib Nurmagomedov

Khabib Victory

Odds

-285

Khabib is 31 years old, 5'8" and has a 179 cm arm span. Nurmagomedov has held the UFC title since April 2018 and has successfully defended it twice, against both Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier. The Russian fighter has been competing in MMA for more than ten years and holds a 28-0 record.

During his career, Khabib has not only won against Poirier and McGregor, but also against Al Laquinta, Edson Barboza, Michael Johnson, Rafael Dos Anjos, Pat Healy, Abel Trujillo and Gleison Tibau.

 Khabib owes much of these great results to excellent physical and technical training under the guidance of his father Abdulmanap and his mentor Javier Mendez. The favorite status given to the Russian is well justified, since Nurmagomedov is the best wrestler in the division, and shows in his dominant performances. Khabib’s record has improved his odds in sportsbooks, but we cannot write off Ferguson.

Of course, it is never that easy to understand who will win, because both fighters carry a heavy past of injuries that can make a reappearance and affect the fight.

However, in Khabib’s recent fights, it appears that he has completely left behind his problems with weight loss and other ailments. His in-fighting form against both Conor and Dustin was at its highest level since his beginning in the UFC.

He will also hold the mental superiority in the upcoming fight. Of course, Tony will not be afraid of passes to the legs and work in the ground and grappling game. However, “El Cucuy” has in recent fights increasingly went to the exchange, working in the usual form with free hands and has not worried too much if he missed sharp blows.

In the fight with Conor, Khabib proved that he only needs one precise blow to send his opponent to the ground. Khabib is unlikely to want to fight standing the entire round, but there is no doubt that we will see a couple of punches throughout the fight.

Tony Ferguson

Ferguson Victory

Odds

+195

Ferguson is on a win streak of 12 fights, and the American’s overall record is 25-3. He has been competing in the UFC since 2011 and only lost to Michael Johnson more than seven years ago. By beating Ferguson, Nurmagomedov will become the only dominant force in his division.

 Tony’s battered opposition shows the dominance of the fighter, and the American is not inferior at least in this indicator to Khabib. Danny Castillo, Abel Trujillo, Gleison Tibau, Josh Thomson, Edson Barbosa, Rafael Dos Anjos, Kevin Lee, Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone. Ferguson was able to win all of them in dominant style.

El Cucuy’s fights are characterized by an abundance of blood, as the American perfectly wields his elbows, cutting the faces of opponents. He is the most versatile and original fighter that Nurmagomedov will have faced.

Tony seemingly never gets tired and is able to keep a high-drive performance through all five rounds. The fighter also owns a blackbelt in Brazilian Ju-Jitsu.

The main thing that distinguishes Tony from most of the promotion’s other fighters is his constant involvement in training. Many fighters who are trying to enter into the top-level do not carry such a genuine love for practicing new movements and developing the vestibular apparatus.

El Cucuy is preparing for future fights every day. He has no pauses between training sessions, just periods of lower intensity. These workloads, of course, affect the physical condition of the fighter.

In 2018, he tore his cruciate ligament at a press event before the fight with Khabib and underwent a major recovery operation. He later proved to everyone that the damage to his knee has been long forgotten and has defeated one opponent after another.

However, on January 25, 2020, it became known that the fighter was again bothered by his left leg. The injury was not so serious in that case and he said that he would not allow a repeat of the situation in 2018.

The main advantage of Tony will be his “survival” and the ability to adapt to any surprises and difficulties that may come his way if the fight continues past the third round.

Prediction for Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Tony Ferguson Fight

Is Ferguson too dangerous for the Russian champion? Perhaps. Khabib was caught in the guillotine against Porter but managed to get out. However, keep in mind that Ferguson is a more skillful grappler than Dustin, and wins many fights in this manner. In addition, for the first time in his career, Nurmagomedov will not have an advantage in stamina.

We must also note the work of our countryman’s legs, because Tony does not move in a straight line, but goes to the near distance from the side and constantly fades in so that the opponent cannot read Ferguson’s actions and does not see the attack coming. This is probably the first time that an opponent of Khabibs has a chance not only on paper but also in reality.

So why is Tony the underdog? Tony has had problems during his career with fighters who have come to the MMA from freestyle wrestling, against Danny Castillo and Kevin Lee in particular. No matter how big and awkward Ferguson may be, he is inferior to Nurmagomedov in physical power, which means that the Russian has a good chance of controlling and taking Tony down from above.

Where to Watch the Fight

The fight can either be streamed online or ordered directly from Pay-Per-View. The site UFC.TV will have streams from Fox Sports Go and FS1 available and is the best available option for those who do not want to deal with cables.

We are all hoping that this time no injuries or other problems will prevent Khabib and Tony from meeting in the octagon. Of course, many UFC viewers cannot shake off the possibility of another disruption to the main event.

Conor McGregor, who recently rose from the ashes and defeated Donald Cerrone, has recently been adding fuel to the fire by assuring that the fight will certainly be canceled due to an injury to one of the participants.

Apparently, we are talking about the same injury to Ferguson, because if so then the Irishman says that he is ready to immediately go out on short notice and take the fight from Khabib. However, his time to fight for the belt will come, as the Russian champion is preparing to meet a mystical Ghost monster-Tony El Cucuy" Ferguson.