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Oldies but Goodies: 5 Timeless Sports Betting Tips

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I don't know about you, but I have always loved to listen to my grandfather. A grandfather is a person who has already (almost) lived his life. In his philosophy there are always keys to living - what we call life experience. It does not matter whether your grandfather has become the CEO of a large corporation or has worked as a school teacher for 50 years. He always has something to say about life.

Never listen to taxi drivers or to those that move around at night. Never let yourself be offended, never work where your paycheck is delayed, don't eat meals at night and don't drink coffee on an empty stomach. 

All of these well established truths can be learned from many years of experience, or you can just listen to your grandfather. It really is that easy! Your grandfather has already passed all of these life missions - and can pass the knowledge onto you. Not that I imagine myself to be a wise grandfather, but I have the right to at least try on this role for size since I have been betting most of my life. 

 Lets Go! Five Betting Tips for my Unborn Grandson

  1. Parlay betting is like burning bills at the stake: the profit is the same. 

Not a single person on the planet has increased their bankroll only playing parlays. Just think: it is difficult enough to predict one competition. Even if this event is incredibly plausible (like Barcelona beating Leganes for -320), it is also difficult to make money on it.

You need to risk a greater amount of money for a tangible profit. Now think about the difficulty in predicting several events. A combination of prop bets, bets on the outcome or double chance and some over/unders thrown in for good measure. There is always at least one that runs straight off the rails. And when your friend proudly exclaims to you his ticket to living in the Hamptons with a 12-leg parlay, consider to yourself the odds of him winning the entire thing: one out of three thousand. 

  1. Sports are more important than bets

To bet on games or sports that you are not interested in, do not watch and furthermore do not understand - well, it's a troubling sign. More about this in our previous text. However, in short - betting just to bet is about as dumb as watching a movie, just to watch it.

Interest in the event should always be at the forefront. The next UFC event, the Super Bowl, the NHL Playoffs - events that are interesting for you to watch even without betting. The meaning of the wager, is that it expresses our own point of view on the final result of the event and fuels the intrigue. 

  1. Fixed games - they do happen, but we will never know of them

It would seem so simple for some competitions, and there are always people who claim with certainty that he knows that the game is fixed one way or another. Remember forever: no he does not. Half of the team that participates in the game may not even know if this is some kind of fix on the game.

The information would be made available to maybe ten people on the field (referees, coaches, pitchers, defenders), several experts or sportsbooks will not know, but will be aware of abnormalities betting one way or the other on a specific competition. Simply judge for yourself: there are serious federal penalties for fixing a game or event, would a person involved in this really sell the information for ten dollars?

  1. It is useful to look at statistics, but you must understand that the game is a seperate event

“The past does not allow us to predict the future” is a rather controversial statement by the Lebanese-American scholar Nassim Nicholas Taleb, but there is also some truth in it.

The classic situation: how many times have thought that in a game between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund or the New York Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins, that it is obvious that both teams will score. How can these fierce rivals end the game without scoring? Even with the professional goalies that grace these teams, the Neuers and the Lundqvists, it is impossible to end the game without each team scoring at least once.

Bullshit! The teams then continue to wander around, play lackadaisical and the game ends 0-0, or with one team gaining the shutout over the other. Previous games between the two do not matter for these events. There are plenty of other variables that must be taken into account for each game. In addition, statistics tend to be updated with every new game.

  1. In every sport, getting the win is important, not the style in which you get it

Do not be surprised when you put -3.5 on the New Jersey Devils, and they end up winning 3-0 (maybe be surprised that they won). The team itself does not care about the number of goals it scores or the margin it wins by. With a 3-0 lead nearing the 55th minute of the game, getting the win is all that is important. At that point in time, it will be the opponent making the major push for more goals, controlling most of the offensive possession. 

Bonus: All sportsbook odds are an assumption, not a reflection of real probability

Oddsmakers are ordinary people, they are just like us in trying to predict the outcome of sporting events. If a sportsbook believes that the teams are absolutely equal, then equal odds will be set. However, just because the sportsbook puts this, does not mean that it is true.

Several bets on the game going one way will change those original odds. Now, in terms of the odds, the chances for each team are not 50/50 but instead 53/47, making it seem as if one team now has the better chance. The oddsmakers, as good as they can be, are still putting their opinions into the lines. You, or anyone else for that matter, may have something different in mind. 

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