The Matchday 24 clash in the Bundesliga between Leipzig and Mainz will take place on March 1 at the Red Bull Arena. Leipzig vs. Mainz: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Leipzig
Marco Rose's side shared the points for the fifth time in their last six league matches (1 win) in the previous round. However, the result against Heidenheim (2-2) can be seen positively as they managed to come back from a two-goal deficit. This is the second time Leipzig has overturned such a handicap in this stretch. Nevertheless, the abundance of draws does not help their position in the standings, as the club has fallen out of the Champions League zone.
- The team has not lost in 9 of their last 11 Bundesliga matches (4 wins, 5 draws).
- Leipzig has scored at least two goals in their last five home league matches.
- The club has conceded at least one goal in 6 of their last 8 home games in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Leipzig (4-4-2)
Peter Gulacsi – David Raum, Bote Baku, Willi Orban, Castello Lukeba – Nicolas Seiwald, Kevin Kampl, Christoph Baumgartner, Xavi Simons – Lois Openda, Benjamin Sesko.
Midfielder Xaver Schlager and forward Antonio Nusa are unavailable due to injuries. Midfielder Christoph Baumgartner is suspended.
Mainz
The team defeated St. Pauli 2-0 at home in the last round, extending their unbeaten run in the league to three matches (2 wins, 1 draw). Notably, Bo Henriksen's side did not concede a single goal during this stretch. Interestingly, Mainz has won their last four Bundesliga matches with a 2-0 scoreline. In the standings, the club has climbed to fifth place, reducing the gap to fourth place to just one point.
- At least one opponent failed to score in 7 of Mainz's last 8 league matches.
- The team has not drawn in their last 7 away Bundesliga matches (3 wins, 4 losses).
- In 7 of their last 9 away games in this tournament, the club has not conceded more than one goal.
Predicted lineup for Mainz (3-5-2)
Robin Zentner – Dominik Kohr, Moritz Jenz, Danny da Costa – Philipp Mwene, Nadiem Amiri, Kaishu Sano, Paul Nebel, Anthony Caci – Jonathan Burkardt, Nelson Weiper.
Defender Dominik Kohr will miss the match due to an accumulation of yellow cards.
Referee
Daniel Siebert (Germany)
Matches – 11 (Bundesliga, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 56;
Average yellow cards per match – 5.1;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 27%.
Leipzig vs. Mainz: Match Prediction
Bo Henriksen's side continues to demonstrate exemplary defensive play. After the last round, Mainz did not concede in three consecutive matches for the first time this season. None of their opponents during this stretch managed to generate even a goal's worth of xG. In terms of clean sheets in the 2024/25 Bundesliga, the club ranks behind only Bayern and Leipzig. Clearly, a head-to-head clash between such opponents does not promise a goal fest.
Marco Rose's team also did not concede in three consecutive league matches before the last round, but Heidenheim managed to capitalize on their chances – both shots on target resulted in goals. Mainz, however, is not scoring more than their expected goals suggest.
Additionally, in the last five head-to-head Bundesliga encounters between these teams, no more than three goals have been scored. This is another factor supporting the prediction of Total under 3.
