Learning How to Make Value Bets
Among sports bettors both new and experienced, the act of value betting is popular and for good reasons. What does it mean and how should beginning players use it? Is it possible to exclusively use value betting and win long-term thanks to this strategy? Let's start from the beginning.
To begin, it is necessary to determine the actual concept behind value betting. Value is an instance in which the player gains an advantage over the sportsbook’s line. This is, simply put, when odds have been overinflated usually due to a sportsbook’s poor perception of the competition.
Finding these games and these odds is the main goal of players using the value betting strategy. In order to do this, the player conducts their own analysis of the competition, and figures out what he believes the odds should be. If a discrepancy is found while comparing these odds with the sportsbook’s odds, then action can be considered on that game.
Now we have to ask the question of how these overinflated or inaccurate odds even make it onto the sportsbook’s site. There are usually a few key reasons for this occurrence.
Sportsbook incorrectly assessed the competition. Sportsbooks do not always accurately post betting lines, especially for the less than spectacular events in the sports world. If a player knows the lower leagues of a division well, has information about lineups, injuries, current form, etc, then that player will normally have an advantage in the initial assessment of the game line.
Getting your hands on this information can prove to be difficult however, as you will need to be completely immersed in the topic, which is always difficult when it comes to small leagues and championships. In addition, sportsbooks will respond quickly to the amount placed on one of the outcomes and the line can quickly change.
Sportsbook errors. It does happen. Sportsbook’s lines, especially when there are many competitions, are not always placed perfectly. However, this cannot be considered a value bet, since in the overwhelming majority of cases, sportsbooks will learn of their mistakes and instead make the bet a push, or a tie. This means that you will not win money, but will instead tie the sportsbook and return your stake.
Odds watching. Though not the most obvious type of value, it can be effective. In this situation, players will observe the line movement for a specific game, how the odds change. Value appears here when the odds for one of the outcomes becomes abnormally low. Here, a bet placed on the opposite outcome is appropriate, since the incorrect assessment appears due to the majority of the public betting on one outcome.
Sportsbooks overwhelmed by the volume of bets. Sometimes, for one reason or another, the sportsbook is in no hurry to change the odds for a competition, or does not follow the fellow sportsbooks in the area. In this case, players can take advantage of the fact that this sportsbook has more attractive and lucrative odds for this event.
Hopefully now it is clear that the value betting strategy requires total involvement in the world of sports betting. Without doing your own analysis of the event first, the player will simply get lost in predictions, expert assessments, etc.
How to Find Valuable Odds
So now we have figured out what the value rates are in the sportsbook’s odds and for what reasons they may appear. However, what still remains is how to find these values.
There are many different programs, both paid and free, that act as a search engine for odds. What these programs do is search and compare betting lines and odds from multiple sportsbooks. The player can then analyze the differences between the lines and determines whether to bet or not.
One of the best ways to do this is through our own Betting Center, which posts the best odds from multiple sportsbooks for each competition. The other option is through an independent search for “Value Bets”. This method all depends on the player's own experience. This includes the player’s immersion in a sport, history of the teams and in the news surrounding the event.
With value betting, it is not just an analysis, but an in-depth comprehensive check of the bet as a whole. The third option is perhaps the lengthiest endeavor. This requires you to select several different games, go to the sportsbook’s websites and compare the odds for each competition. If any serious discrepancy is found, then a thorough analysis needs to be conducted.
Why did this sportsbook assess the event differently, did the player miss something? Using this method, there is a specific formula that can be used to calculate the value.
(Odds x %probability) ÷ 100
The most difficult thing to do with this formula is to determine the percentage of probability, since the player must do this part themselves. It is believed that if the solution to this formula comes out higher than one (≥ 1.0), then we have a value rate. It is worth remembering that only experienced players can correctly calculate the probability.
Should you use value betting in your bets?
Value bets are certainly not a myth in the sports betting industry. If the player knows how to find inconsistencies in the sportsbook lines, then they can be used. However, many novice players ask how they too can make these value bets. It seems like a good time to warn them.
Every beginner to betting needs to understand that the process of employing the value betting strategy is a difficult and time consuming task. A task, which many novice players are simply not ready for, at least in theory. Sportsbooks try to recognize and change their mistakes as quickly as possible. The opportunity to make a bet on valuable odds is not always there, and in addition if there are value bets they can quickly disappear.
In conclusion, the value betting strategy can be used anywhere, it is certainly not prohibited. However, this option is not for every bettor. Sportsbooks have significantly improved their ability in initial line placement, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to find truly misjudged bets. Besides, these are sports and betting we are talking about here, there is no such thing as a guaranteed victory.
It is extremely important when using a value betting strategy to analyze not one, not two, not even ten different bets but more. Players using this strategy need a long list of possible games to watch out for. Though the strategy is likely not something that the player will solely rely on, this is a strategy that is always worth understanding, as it can help you even in the most unexpected situations.