The Strategy of Sportsbook Middling Defined
The functions of sportsbooks are built in such a way that it is almost impossible to maintain a profit in the long term. One of the few strategies that in theory allows you to constantly win is by middling (sometimes called forking) your sports bets.
Using this betting method, the player does not need to follow the course of events, because in the end, despite how the games play out, he will still return a profit.
Middling the Odds: Strategy Description
Middling is a situation in which two different sportsbooks offer odds on the opposite outcome of one event that are conflicted in such a way that you can bet on both and no matter the outcome still return a profit. Due to a game being evenly matched, sportsbooks sometimes have to inflate the odds, so that they drastically differ from those of competitors and are more attractive for players.
It is in such cases that there may be a situation that a player betting on the odds of two opposite outcomes (and in winning either of them) can remain positive.
Examples of opposite outcomes for middling:
- P1 - P2: Team 1 win and Team 2 win (mostly relevant in single sports).
- TU (2.5) - TO (2.5): Totals under 2.5 goals and totals higher than 2.5 goals.
- T1 (-1.5) - F2 (1.5): Handicap odds 1 and plus team odds 2 with the same value.
Let's say that during the run-up to a soccer game, one sportsbook has the betting line '2.5 Over' (total more than 2.5 goals) with a factor of 2.11 (+111), and another offers a bet on the opposite market 'Total under 2.5 (total less than 2.5 goals) with a factor of 2.07 (+107). This is the case when, with any number of goals in a match (TO 2.5 or TU 2.5), the player who bet on both outcomes will remain profitable.
Finding Opportunities to Middle in Sportsbook Odds
When "middling" gained momentum, people manually searched for the difference in odds, counting the amounts for bets on a simple calculator. Today you can find a middle ground both independently and with the help of different applications.
You can understand if the opportunity is present or not using a formula.
- KF1 -Odds on the first outcome
- KF2 - Odds on the second outcome
- In - The value in the middle should be less than one
If the value of In is less than one, then we have a betting fork on our hands!
As an example, let us consider the odds on a tennis event for the presence of a sportsbook's fork. Let's say for Djokovic's victory against Nadal odds of 2.43 (+143) are offered. Another sportsbook estimates Nadal's success rate at 1.84 (-119). We put the values into the formula:
At 0.95, that's less than one, so we have a value in front of us that allows us to fork.
However, today calculators for betting forks are actively used along with other services that allow us to determine both the value of the fork and the necessary amounts for both bets without self-use formulas. The search for opportunities to middle the odds in sportsbooks can also be carried out with the help of special programs that automatically scan sportsbook websites.
How to Use Sportsbook Middling
In order to play on the found fork, you need to determine the size of bets on the selected opposite events. To do this, you can use both an online calculator for betting forks, and a formula:
(1 : KF : V) x B = C
- KF - Odds on the result (KF1 or KF2)
- In - Value of the fork
- B - Amount of the allocated bank to play on this particular fork
- C - Size of the Bet (alternately calculate C1 and C2)
Consider the example of the "middling" of the totals mentioned above, when at TO 2.5 we have a factor of 2.11 (+111), and on TU 2.5 we have 2.07 (+107). Suppose our bankroll for playing on this particular bet is $100. First, we must calculate the possible value:
(1 : 2.11) = (1 : 2.07) - 0.957. That is B q 0.957.
Consistently calculate the size of bets on both outcomes, substituting the necessary values in the formula:
- (1 : 2.11 : 0.957) *100 = $49.52 - the size of the bet on "total more" for the odds of 2.11 (+111).
- (1 : 2.07 : 0.957) *100 to $50.48 - the size of the bet on "total under" for the odds of 2.07 (+107).
Thus, if the player wins the "total over," the profit will be: $49.52 and on the 2.11, $104.49.
If the "total is less than," the player will receive: $50.48 on odds of 2.07 and 104.49 U.S.
In any of the outcomes in this fork, the player makes at least a profit of 4.49 U.S.
Middling Bets During the Games
In addition to opportunities that are formed before the game, players can monitor the change of odds in real time. Middling game live is more convenient because the percentage of net profit is much higher.
Moreover, it is more difficult for sportsbooks to track down "pitchers" during this period. However, this method of play does have its drawbacks: in live betting, the odds change very quickly, respectively, you may not have time to make a bet.
Otherwise, this strategy in live betting takes place in the same way as in the pre-game mode (before the event).
Pros and Cons of Playing with Sportsbook Forks
The main goal of "middling", as mentioned, is the player will profit not matter the outcome of a sporting event. However, there is a disadvantage, which you need to know before deciding to search for a fork in sportsbooks.
Middling bets is strictly prohibited by all sportsbooks. A player who middles bets risks being left with nothing. To prevent unfair earnings on the part of players in sportsbooks, there are groups of specialists who monitor the activity of accounts.
In the event of even the slightest suspicion that the player is using this strategy, the account is immediately blocked until the circumstances are clarified. For the most part, sportsbooks simply cut the maximum sums for bets and cancel the winnings.
To avoid this, most players will use more than one sportsbook, watching the odds for a competition on both. With two separate accounts, the player should hope to see one or both accounts continue to profit, while also avoiding any possible drawbacks.