How to Win NFL Bets Pt.2
Another popular bet come football season will be betting on the totals. In these types of bets, the sportsbook will choose a specific statistic from the game and list a number representing the total of that statistic by the end of the game. The player must then decide whether the bookie’s number is too high or low. For example, if the bookie lists 46 for the number of total points scored between the teams, you need to decide whether the combined score of both teams will be more or less than 46 at the end of the game.
The type of analysis you conduct will be almost completely based on what statistic you are betting on. For example, if the total statistic is receiving yards, you need to first look at the type of offense the teams run. Teams either predominately attack through the air or by rushing the ball. Obviously you will want a team who plays in the former along with a pair of great quarterbacks for both teams as well.
Then, secondly you can start to look at the team’s receivers, their defensive secondary and how they match up and the weather conditions. When there is rain or snowfall, teams are a lot less likely to throw the ball. There is also a higher probability of fumbles and interceptions taking place. You will also want to take note of which teams are used to playing in these conditions as the effect might not be as drastic.
You can do the same for every statistic offered. The player just needs to understand the causes and effects in the game of football. Good quarterbacks and a weak secondary will lead to a high amount of receiving yards. A field-goal kicker with a long range will lead to more field goals being taken and so on. Knowing these cause and effects will help you know specifically what to look for when adapting to new totals bets.
Totals bets come in a variety of options. Of course, the variations and number offered depend on the bookmaker. However, bookmakers can feature different statistics and can be for only one team instead of both. In football, totals bets can also be for individual quarters or halves. In the cases of only one team or for different quarters and halves the strategies remain the same but of course need to be customised to fit the time frame.
You can also bet on totals for the individual stars of each team. These will usually be offered for players in the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions. Here is where you want to get specific in your analysis. When you bet on a specific player you need to understand all of the factors that will determine their output throughout the game.
For example, Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers is known as one of the leagues elites, and Green Bay’s offense relies heavily on his passing. Therefore, in order to bet on Rodgers total passing yards for a game, you must match him up against the opposing teams secondary. You must look at the receivers and tight ends he has starting that day.
Betting on long-term future outcomes is the bet that rounds out the main types we will discuss. Parlays can of course be played however are better played with in other sports like soccer or tennis, when there is more predictability involved. Futures in the NFL will most likely be unpredictable however there are exceptions.
The normal markets for NFL futures are Super Bowl winner, division winners, team wins, wild-card teams and bets on individual awards given at the end of the season. These awards include MVP, Super Bowl MVP, Offensive/Defensive Player of the Year, etc.
Predicting who will win certain awards after the season is over is extremely difficult and not recommended. There will most likely be favorites for these awards, but to correctly predict who will perform the best out of all the stars for the entire season is nearly impossible. Factor in injuries, trades and breakout players and it becomes an even more difficult task.
For the highly rated teams, most bookmakers offer a base number of nine wins. The player must decide if the team will win more or less than nine games. If you are betting that a team will win more than nine games there is also a pretty good chance they will also win the division. This is why most bookmakers will not allow the player to combine the bets on a parley. However, you can bet double by choosing both lines separately.
The analysis when choosing a team for these markets or amount of wins for a team should be thorough in futures. The first thing you should do is look at the teams schedule for the season. You need to take a brief look right away at the team’s opponents and figure out the key matchups for each week. When doing this, you will need to study the team’s divisional opponents twice the amount of time of any other opponent.
The team’s division rivals will account for nearly half of the team’s games. They will also most likely be its toughest opponents as they are must win games for every team. In addition, your team stands a much better chance of making the playoffs if they are able to win these games. Remember, a win for your team here is a direct loss for the teams playing for the same playoff spot.
Squad depth is another thing worth looking at due to the high amount of injuries in the NFL. A good backup at the key positions goes a long way in a gruelling 16 game season. Many NFL teams rely on one or two key players on each side of the ball. If they go down without a proper backup in place your whole bet could go down with them at a second’s notice.
After doing these things the player needs to decide which games they are confident the team can win, which games they will lose and which games are too close to call. For the close games make a list of different factors that will come into play during these weeks. You will need to look at everything for these games because you will need a definite answer unless you already have enough games in your win column.
This can include key matchups, weather conditions, play styles and more. Another important thing to look at are both team’s games surrounding the matchup. If the team has a difficult few games coming into the week when it plays yours it may face fatigue and not play as well. The opposite is true if it have a weaker path.
With this summary, you should be able to better choose which bets to undertake. The NFL is an unpredictable league but knowing the factors that go into each teams win is the best way to confidently go through this new season. As always, may the odds be in your favour no matter which markets you choose to bet on.